Foreign Exchange Market, called Forex is a huge market of currency trading in which the commodity is money itself. In the currencies market, traders are buying and selling foreign currencies. They are trading dollars for Euros, pounds for yen, and so forth. We trade currencies always in pairs, so although we trade for example pounds for dollars, we either sell a pair GBP/USD or buy it. Buying is called “going long” and selling “going short”.

National currencies fluctuate from day to day based on predictions of the nation’s gross domestic product and other factors. As with the stock market, the goal is to buy low and sell high; buy a lot of a particular currency when it’s weak, then sell it when it becomes stronger.

Although we talk of “buying” and “selling” dollars, Euros, pounds, yen and francs, the transactions performed in the Forex are not literal. That is, if you want to buy 10,000 pounds, you don’t have to withdraw the equivalent U.S. dollars from your bank account and swap them out for a big stack of pounds. To know when the right time to enter a trade is we forecast Forex markets. It is not easy and nobody gets it 100% right. With the proper discipline and money management being 65% right can be very profitable.

There are two main ways of forecasting the Forex Market: fundamental and technical analysis.

Fundamental analysis means forecasting the market based on external factors, like political moves, government involvement and social movements. A currency rate could drop because a country’s government is unstable at the moment, or increase because the country has just elected a popular new leader. Anything that can affect a nation’s economy can affect the exchange rates, and that’s what a fundamental analyst uses to guess the Forex market’s future.

The technical analysis means examining past market actions and using that data to predict the future. Previous trends in most areas of life are usually good indicators of the future; Forex is no different. People have not changed much in the decades since the Forex market was created. Smart analysts learned to look at the big picture, to skip the minor details and examine trends over a longer period of time.

Generally technical analysis is better for a day trading and fundamental analysis for intraday trading, but many traders use a mixture of both.

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There are two groups of traders: fundamentalists and technicians. Fundamentalists are traders who use fundamental analysis to predict price action, and technicians are traders who use technical analysis to predict price action. Of course a lot of traders use both types of analysis.

Let’s talk today about fundamental analysis, which is based on economic factors.

Fundamentalists assume that the supply and demand for currencies is a result of economic processes that can be observed. So, they observe economic, social, and political forces that drive supply and demand. They believe that by observing all kinds of indicators they can predict price actions.

Because currency prices are a reflection of the balance between supply and demand for currencies, by analyzing different data, such as interest rates, balance of trade, foreign investment, GDP and many others, traders can predict price actions. The problem is that there is huge amount of data to analyze. Fundamentalists can study any criteria except price action. Different fundamental analysts look at different economic indicators, but the most important are economic growth rates, inflation, unemployment and interest rates. Especially data that is related to interest rates and international trade is analyzed very closely.

Fundamentalists know when different economic indicators will be released. They usually have calendars where they note the date and time when different important statistics will be made public.

By learning and observing different fundamentals of the markets we can increase our knowledge and understanding of the global market. By doing fundamental analysis we can predict economic conditions very well. We can also have a clear picture of general health of the economy. We will know what is going on. Those are the reasons why we should not completely ignore fundamental analysis.

But there are some problems with fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis usually does not give us specific entry and exit points, so the trades can be pretty risky. It is very difficult to find a method of translating all of the different information into specific entry and exit points for a particular trading strategy. There is so much information that it is easy to be confused.

That is why many traders use some fundamental analysis to understand unexpected movements of the prices and to know the forces which move them, but they use technical analysis to decide when to enter and exit the trades.